Three IMC traders are involved in a (paintball) battle – one trader from Sydney, one from Chicago, and one from Amsterdam. The Sydney trader has a ¼ chance of hitting her target, the Chicago trader has ½ chance of hitting her target, and the Amsterdam trader never misses. They take turns shooting in that order (Sydney, Chicago, Amsterdam). Once a trader has been hit, he’s out of the battle, and play continues in the same order until there’s one trader remaining. They get one shot per turn so can only attempt to shoot one trader. The Sydney trader goes first – where should he try and shoot and why?
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